Private Equity Experience
Demystify the world of private equity with insider knowledge.
Join hosts Ed Barton, Rory Liebhart, and Emily Sander - seasoned professionals who have worked from all angles as C-suite leaders, private equity managing directors, and investors.
In this podcast, they break down complex private equity concepts into everyday language. You'll gain a clear understanding of the PE landscape, key players, and market dynamics. Expect practical insights on deal-making, growth strategies for founders and management teams, and exit strategies. Plus, hear real-world examples and real-time breakdowns of trending news stories.
Whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, considering selling your company to a private equity firm, or simply curious about this lucrative world, this podcast will help you navigate the private equity landscape with confidence.
Private Equity Experience
Tariffs, Trapped Equity, and the PE Tightrope: Navigating Uncertain Markets
Summary:
In this episode, the hosts discuss the current economic environment, tariffs, and their impact on private equity. They also explore the concept of "trapped equity" and how it affects private equity firms. The conversation touches on the uncertainty created by tariffs, the risk premium required, and how it changes the dynamics of buying and selling assets.
Key Takeaways:
Tariffs create uncertainty: Tariffs lead to uncertainty, which can result in inaction and trepidation among investors and private equity firms.
Trapped equity: Trapped equity refers to assets that have appreciated in value but are difficult to sell or liquidate due to market conditions.
Impact on private equity: Tariffs and economic uncertainty can decrease transaction volume, making it harder for private equity firms to sell assets and return capital to investors.
Risk premium: The risk premium required by investors increases in uncertain times, making it more expensive for private equity firms to finance deals.
LPs want liquidity: Limited partners (LPs) want to see liquidity and returns on their investments, which can put pressure on private equity firms to sell assets.
Contrarian opportunities: In a recession, some private equity firms may see opportunities to buy distressed assets at lower prices.
Predictions:
Tariff situation: The hosts predict that the tariff situation will improve because it cannot get much worse.
Recession likelihood: Ed predicts a 100% chance of a recession in the next 18 months, while Rory agrees that it's almost inevitable.
Recession depth: The hosts believe that the recession will not be as severe as the 2008 financial crisis and that there will be intervention to mitigate its effects.
Advice for Founders and Private Equity Firms:
Be prepared for uncertainty: Founders and private equity firms should be prepared to navigate uncertain market conditions.
Look for contrarian opportunities: In a recession, look for opportunities to buy distressed assets at lower prices.
Vet private equity firms: Founders should carefully vet private equity firms and consider their investment thesis and approach in uncertain markets.
Conclusion:
The hosts conclude that private equity firms will continue to adapt to changing market conditions and that there will always be opportunities for innovation and deal-making. They also emphasize the importance of being prepared for uncertainty and looking for contrarian opportunities in a recession.
Who We Are
If we haven’t met before—Hi! We’re a team of professionals who’ve worked together at multiple companies, seen private equity from all sides, and are here to share what we’ve learned to help you succeed. Ed Barton brings decades of tax and financial strategy experience; Rory Liebhart is a finance and M&A pro with a track record of high-growth exits; and Emily Sander is a former Chief of Staff, multi-time author, podcast host, and founder of Next Level Coaching, helping leaders and organizations accelerate their growth.
Hello? Private equity boys. How we doing?
Rory:We're good. It's been a minute. It's been a
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:It's been a while.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Gosh.
Ed:tax. It's tax season's
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Seems like the whole
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:I was gonna, yeah.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:the last, uh, couple months in a way.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yes, so, so we took a little hiatus because of tax season. Ed gets buried in tax season. He just goes, he just goes away. Then he resurfaces and he has come up for air now. So it's nice to see you, ed.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yep.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:I'm glad to get a, a proof of life on this podcast with you. Um, and Rory, you've been, you've had some changes as well.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:yeah. I went from doing a lot of consulting work to going full blown, you know, headfirst into working for a startup, or I should say early stage business, so not totally a startup, but much earlier business than I've worked for in the past. so, you know, as, as those things go, kind of all consuming, but, um, yeah, it's been a ride and it will continue to be a ride. So
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Your you're CF Oing.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:am, yep, yep. I, uh, started with this company to a financial, gosh, it's been over a year that I, I started doing some consulting work for'em, but then as soon as I got into the hood and I saw what was there, I was like, boy, this is a gold mine to. FinTech platform and consumer lending platform. And I was like, I wanna ride this thing to the top because there's some special, unique stuff going on there. So, um, been a good ride, but, you know, never easy, uh, running a, running a startup, that's for sure. I.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:I had some conversations about that decision. I was like, which, which way do I go?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:some serious heart to hearts about that.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah, we did.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:instrumental and, and kind of helped me get off that fence of, uh, hedging, which I like to do a lot. You know, try to not be too much optionality.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Oh my gosh.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:you can only go one way with a, with a startup. And that's, you know, all in kind of, so, yeah. So it's been good. It's
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:though. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Very cool. Okay, Rory, you took the plunge,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:got load of risk. Is this like a true startup?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Well,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:you're.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:of those things without going too deep into the weeds, uh, you know, it's a business that's been around about 10 years. Uh, started as a buy now, pay later, uh, business in Canada, and then pivoted to being a full fledged, um, personal loan provider in the us. And a lot of businesses, they start with an amazing vision and things, but do go like a circuitous path. out what it's, what's really trying to be in the market. So, I came into the business with A-A-C-E-O that was brought in by, uh, the founder, the board, awesome, CEO. And, um, now we're operating the business and it's really, it's, it's, uh, all of the tech and infrastructure really already been built. So it's really just making, uh, making the product and, and market. to life, and that's where we spend our time. So, and then also a lot of capital raising too, of course. You know,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:How's the, who's the sponsor there?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:uh, it's a widely held, um, investor base in Canada. A lot of
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:okay.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:very wealthy, highly successful Canadian business people, a lot of'em from the Calgary oil and gas industry. Um, so it's one of those, you know, hundreds of investors, individual investor type of deals. But once we. get to the next funding round, it'll, it'll be led by more of an institutional venture capital type type group. So yeah,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:And Ed, will you rega us with your tales of tax returns or.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:You know, I,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:an acquisition roll up strategy over the last.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:was about to say, I've been working, I've been working really the acquisition, the tax season, put the, put a lot of the rollup piece slash integration piece on hold. Um, the last thing you do as a, as a financial professional is try and make major changes in Q4, Q1.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:we closed in Q4. Um, so we, we essentially were, were running three different. Maybe four different accounting platforms, bookkeeping platforms. We're running two different payroll platforms. We're running two different tax platforms. Um, so we're just starting now to do some of those integrations and, you know, continuing to run into interesting issues. Um, know, that, let, let's just say that the, uh. The systems that were, that were in place, were very, uh, customized. So 175
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Proprietary. Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Um, so we're working to standardize those.'cause what's happened, of course, is. You have an acquisition. This is typical in professional services where you do an acquisition, someone you know, you have folks who are like, yeah, I, I, you know, it's time for me to go. Um, so folks decide to leave at that point, and then you end up in a situation where
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yep.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:those 40 clients had 40 different custom processes that you can't transition in.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Um, so, you know, it's been a real challenge, uh, from that perspective. Having said that, it was a good tax season, busy tax season we're turn, we were turning down work and are still in the process of like being very selective as to who we take it. It's been shocking
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:at the, uh, at really how much demand there is for, um, basic financial services.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Just to give people a sense, like not a deep sense, but just a high level sense of tax season. There's like rolling waves of this thing. There's like business tax and individual tax, and.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:so, so the first, the first
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:K ones. Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:31 to Jan to, or December 31 to January 31, where you gotta file all your information returns, 10 90 nines, W twos, W four, uh, W twos, 10 90 fives, all those are gotta get out. And then you roll into the ne into 90 eights, and then you roll into next phase, which is all your corporate partnership. Returns are due by the 15th of March, then your individual returns are due by the 15th of April. But if anybody extended their partnership or, or, or s corp returns, anything that impacts those, um, individuals, then you have individual extensions. So we still have,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yep.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:we have probably 1200 clients in the firm. Um, we still have probably 500 returns left to file
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:of extensions. And
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:I'm one of those extenders myself, just putting off the inevitable bill that's coming up with, with minimal interest incurred. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Those were a lot of tax return numbers. Um, for the four listeners who are still with us, we're gonna, we're gonna talk about
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:the,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Oh
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:the economy, what's happening in the market. Tariffs, but the impact is on pe'cause they're getting, they're getting smooshed, they're getting, that's a technical term. They're getting smooshed.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:um, maybe let's, let's.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:outline
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Like what is going on in the economy right now? Some people say, we might be dipping into a recession. We got the whole tariff thing going on. What's what? What is the fancy words for what's happening in the economy here?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah, that's, that's, that's one way to put it. The other one I think that comes to mind, I hear banding about multiple times, daily. It's just uncertainty. There's been a lot of
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:uh, which, which has.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:has
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Broad uncertainty, which in so many ways brings on inaction and trepidation. Um, and so a lot of things unfolding from, from that sort of viewpoint. You know, fear, you know, fear sort of for some, uh, you know, hardy folks, it means opportunity, I guess. Um, but in, in a lot of ways it's just a lot of, you know, not knowing which way to go, uh, with your business, with your investment strategy. Your options become potentially more limited in how you execute, you know, your private equity strategy, and then there's so many things you can dig into on that.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:How does like connect the dots between like tariff, like what's happening with tariffs and why that affects
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:I
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:a PE firm?
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:I really think it goes back to what Rory just said. It's, it creates this uncertainty of most businesses. It doesn't, it almost doesn't matter what the business is. Even service businesses
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:the one I run, they're. in scope. They have, their supply chains are run internationally. They may have international clients, they may be sourcing labor internationally. And so just, just the tariffs alone, uh, as Rory said, it creates this uncertainty where you're not sure what the future economic return of that asset is going to be. It's, it could be really high, it could be really low. It could, you know, because the, because of the nature of those. Um, kind of uncertain events on the attack side. It, it tariffs our taxes. And so as a result, folks are like, forget it. I'm just not gonna, you know, I, I'm gonna hold until I can see, um, until some of that uncertainty comes out, or if they go to sell. And I know we've talked about this, I
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:I know you get really excited, Emily, when I talk about it, but it changes the risk premium required. And so as a result,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Thank God you brought up risk premium. I was waiting for this.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:gonna pay less, you know, because the risk premium's higher.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:So you mentioned a few things there. So like the whole time, so we talked about, hey, like five to seven years, like typical on average whole time, if you're, if you were in a a fund where, hey, like, or in a company where we're on like the seventh year, so we were looking to sell, does this economic environment now push that out?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:But very potentially. Um, there's a few things at play there. So in order to sell, you need to have buyers, right? You know, we've talked on this podcast, it's in our book,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:book,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:you know, much of the PE investment strategy involves leverage and cost of funds related to that. So taking on debt to finance and acquisition. Well, even as of the, you know. Dates of this very recording, and it was very recently put out there that the fed's gonna, um, you know, delay making rate cuts, right? So
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:So
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:think about that in, in every layperson terms, it just means the cost of money is gonna stay relatively high for a time, right? So, uh, the ability to, you know, to. Take on more debt to finance and acquisition means potentially less buyers if you don't have access to that, which if, if less buyers, as a seller you may not be in a position to have a, as much of a competitive process for selling the company or asset you're holding. Um, you know, you may have other, uh, obligations on your own fund related to debt, maybe on the company. There's a whole litany of reasons where. What we're talking about, right this very moment means that there's just not as much,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:um,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:um, transaction volume happening in the market for so many reasons. And if you don't have that, then it just makes your outcomes more uncertain. And there's a lot of ways to skim that cat per se. But that's what it means is just deal activity is just down, uh, overall. And there's, now there's firms collectively that are holding 3 trillion of assets. with half of that they've held for over five years in the space. So think about that for a minute in a lot of ways that one might relate this to their own personal life, and we talk in our book a lot about, you know, real estate and kind of people relate to, it's like, think about your home. And so many people sit on trillions of dollars of what, what's called trapped equity. Meaning your home is appreciated since you bought it.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:You bought it
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Great. That's awesome. You have a, you have a.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:have
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:And assets that, that's appreciated. But on, in, in, order to
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:to
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:realize that value, you'd need to, uh, unlock that equity or take that equity out, cash out, what have you. But if you sell your home, you get a big profit, well, you have to go buy another home, know? But then you'd have to take a, on an interest rate, that's maybe two times as much as what you've been paying on your current mortgage. So you have to think through.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:pay capital
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:That. Um, so double, triple, quadruple whammy. So you just need to think about the outcomes of Yes. You, you know, if you move to, to sell an asset, what does that mean? On the next step, you go buy more assets at a higher price, you know,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay, hold on. Okay.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:much
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:I'm, I'm trying to,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:trying
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:to hang in with you. Okay. So first of all, trapped equity,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:That's a
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:that's a cool term. Trapped equity. So
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:super
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:I have a house,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:to unstrap it and it's trapped in your own life,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:what free, what's equity free?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:if I have a house
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:and it's like appreciated, so I have like, I'm sitting on equity. I wanna sell it, but there's no, first of all, there's no buyers is the first problem.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Because
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:in this economy right now,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:interest rates to be able to afford that. Your home you're selling.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:So, so like the analogy is, um, I'm a PE firm. I have this company that I bought. It's grown in, it's appreciated in value. I wanna sell it, but there's no buyers. That's problem one.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:yeah,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:To
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:no
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:is probably a little overstated,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:There. Okay. There's.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:point is spot on. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:The, the buyers are, are skittish and a little more reluctant than they normally are because,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:willing to buy at a price you're willing to sell for.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:because, what did you say, Roy? The cost of money is uncertain.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Or high straight up. It's just high right now. So for them to be able to buy your company, they need to probably put up more cash out of their own back pocket, or I should say, out of their LPs on back pocket. Um, and to take on the debt, they would have to pay a higher. Price for that money. Let's just use real numbers right now. Like, so, um, you know, back in heyday, let's call it a couple years back, you know, you might have had an interest rate of like four, 4.5%, where the cost of money was, like, the risk-free rate was like zero. you add a 4% spread on that, you're looking at four to 5% interest rate. Well, guess what? Now it's closer to eight, nine for the highest grade debt. 9%. So that's double your cost. So if you just
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Oh,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:like if you bought a, a home and your mortgage payment was a thousand dollars per month for, you know, uh, 360 months, you, you're looking at maybe like almost doubling your payment for that same, same,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:okay.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:just to be able to afford it. So you have to think again as like, well, I could sell my home bank a lot of profit, and to Ed's point. to hire Ed's firm to help you calculate the cap capital gains tax you're gonna have to pay. But then you also have to go buy a new home and place to live, just like private equity is the same way they're in the business of doing deals.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay. Okay.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:in. They, they,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay. So then,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:of continuing to buy deals and sell deals.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:okay, so first problem is I have trapped equity.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Hmm.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Buyer market lower than it was. Second problem. If I sell this sucker, I have to pay capital gains, which is now more than normal or nor more.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Move.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:the same.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:the same, but you, you, when you have a transaction, if there's a gain on that transaction, which you, you would certainly hope there would be. You have a tax that's gonna be due at the LP level or at the corporate level. Essentially you got a profit that you gotta pay tax on and you need to figure out where. Probably more importantly to, to Rory's point is you now gotta figure out where to put that money back to
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Right.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:'cause
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:that's the third one.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:savings
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah. Yeah,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:That's the
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:the third one, but like the second one.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:is
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:that like, is that affected by the market as well? Does the capital gains rate change or is that un unaffected?
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:it's relatively unaffected because it's,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:set, but
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Ah, okay.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:that's right. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:So, okay, so like the big problem, second problem is I've sold it and now I have to redeploy that capital. And now I'm in this like higher interest rate environment. I'm like, this is stupid. I might as well.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:and here's where, and here's where that tax piece comes in. If you don't have a good alternative, I. To reinvest that money and make back the taxes you just paid plus a return.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:You're better off
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Hmm. Okay. Yes. Okay. Got it. Okay.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:But here's the problem with that. Introducing a segue. New topic, same subject. Well, term LP limited partner, they want to get their money back at some point.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:uh,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:So what does that mean? There's pressure to sell, You, you, in order to generate liquidity, which means basically. Accessing cash.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:cash.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:You have to sell an asset, but you need the, you need to be able to sell that asset to pay back your
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:your
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:investors, call it. Now, we can get into some esoterica around that because you could then sell secondaries in your position, yada, yada, yada. But point being is, it's a challenge right now because LPs, as we just talked about.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:about
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:general have been in these deals longer. They wanna see their own liquidity.'cause at the end of the day, an LP is a person or a firm
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:firm
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:that is invested in your fund and they have their own obligations in their life too. At some point they put a dollar in, they want to get, you know,$4 back so they can do what they want to do in their lives. Right. So, so that's the other part. And if you're not able to, this is the other point, is if you're not able to return capital to your LPs. How can you raise more capital for your, your current or new fund? So
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:chain of reaction and it's not just, you know, not just, um, uh, you know, tied to private equity, private credit's the same way other Strat investment strategies. It's just a money flow thing. And that's what really comes down to tariffs and stuff at the end of the day is money flows. It's, there's been some activity on the part of the current administration to try to govern and.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:and
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Impact money flows in a big way, which has created uncertainty, which has had this trickle down effect all the way to how much I'm freaking paying for a dozen eggs and it's hot.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:much on that front, I can assure you that.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah. My grocery store had a quota on the number of egg cartons. You could buy a two, and I was like, Hey, if I want a fricking whatever, 10 egg omelet, I should be able to have one.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:my protein. Exactly. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:It's the most bioavailable protein out there. Come on. Um, so LPs, so it's, it's like I want my return, but also, hey, if you want me to reinvest in a future fund, you better, you better pay up. And if other people, if new LPs are sniffing around going like, Hey, like, should I be investing here? Ooh. Like they have been waiting for their payback for a while now. I don't know about this one. Then it's hard to fundraise. Yes.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:a double whammy.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:time is not on your side when you're calculating internal rates of return as well. So, you know, again, getting into the how way in which PE groups get paid, you know, it's based on a carried interest, which is effectively a profit share based on the returns that you're distributing to your LPs. So the more the the, the more and quicker you can get money back to your LPs, the higher. Their investment return is gonna be, which then speaks to how effective your fund is, which speaks to how well you can market your fund to the existing investors and new investors. So,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:So,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:you know, now is a hard time, and I can tell you from personal experience, is, is not the easiest time to be raising equity, period. Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:How long
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:long can PE stay in this stage of things
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:it?
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:it starts to get really bad?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Oh, it's a resilient. Resilient asset class pe if they can get through the great recession of 2008 through 2010. We'll, you know, we'll weather this storm. It just, it makes for just interesting, um, dynamics. You know, like, it, it, you know, it's not totally uncorrelated to the overall market. I mean, we all. Our stock market portfolio, our public equities portfolio got smashed in early April. I'm glad I was sitting in Hawaii and not, you know, at that time and, and not just, you know, cut curled up in a fetal position in rainy Seattle at the time when that, know, liberation day happened. Um, but that being said, I, I, joking aside, it's just, you know, these things ebb and flow. You know, this is a different type of,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Uh,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:for correction, but it's a correction nonetheless. And like. Private equity, private credit. They're foundational to the economy world and, and kind of
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:domestic and
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:you know, it'll, it'll, it'll,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:will
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:it'll still be there,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:there,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:know?
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:you know,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:So if they, if they've weathered these, these types of storms before, is it predictable in the sense like, okay, when this happens, PE firms do
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:this.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:I'm assuming there's like for the, for the Port cos in in flight they might tinker with that or change some things there and they might say, okay, for this next round we're gonna do some a few things differently. Did they do any
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:like
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:adjustments or they just kind of let it ride?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Ed, jump in. I got some things today, but you go.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:my experience has generally been. the, if there's an opportunity for them to exit that investment to do it in a way where they can take some chips off the table, they're going to do it, it's going to, they're not gonna go, well, you know, we're, we're just gonna kind of let it ride because I. macro level, we're letting things ride. They're still gonna be looking at deals at the deal level. They're still gonna be going well, there's deals to be had. We're gonna look for'em. They're just harder to find.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Um, and it's, and so the deal flow slows,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:it's not, it's not like they, they, I don't, at least my experience has been, and you know, we were, Rory and I were heavy in the private equity world when
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:during the great recession. Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:crisis
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Deep in it. Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:our,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:That's our entire business consumer.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:say our parent co or our, our fund was, was essentially going out and trying to buy everything they could find,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:know? Well,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:and they still were executing sales as well. You know, sales are real estate sale leaseback agreements. They, I mean, it was, it was deal by deal. Um,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:It is true,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:they felt like. If we exited investment X, we could put the money to work in investment Y and still get the return that we're looking for. It's just that some of those investment Y's are harder to find.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:yes.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:So, so if a recession hits, are you saying like, the contrarian point of view is just like blood in the water, like buy everything you can.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:think there's, there's a whole swath of firms that, that, that is their entire strategy. Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Um,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:what was I gonna say along those lines is that, uh, one person's trash is another person's treasure in some ways. And I think there's so much cash
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:cash
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:the fact that. You know, it's uncertain times, accessing, you know, debt capital's expensive. There's still a ton of cash out there. So if you're sitting on cash and you're, you're looking to buy, uh, deals priced with uncertainty in there, IE you know, um, higher risk, premium, lower price, then you're in a good position because you can get deals done. And then
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:And
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:when the interest rates become more attractive back, leverage your deal and do really, really well. For the same relative risk. So,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:um,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:the, the point I'm trying to make, I suppose, is that
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:that
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:no matter what the environment is, there's always innovation and people trying to figure things out. These are really, really smart people that run these firms, so they figure out ways to do a lot of financial engineering to make things work. And I, I talked touched on it a little bit, but one of the things that's happened around creating liquidity is, uh, private equity groups selling their, their positions. Even though they're still owning the bus,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:own
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:the business, perhaps they're not selling the business, they're selling their, their, investment in the business to other parties. So they're syndicating out that duration risk to get liquidity, pay
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Um,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:their investors
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:then raise more capital and do whatever they will do. So
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:So
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:point is where there's a will, there's a way.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:way.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:And with money, people always find a way to. Figure,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:did you say that was individuals doing that?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Oh, I'd know there, I mean there, well shoot. Yeah, there is individuals. I've seen a lot of private offerings where I can go log into a website and buy private equity secondaries. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Whoa,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:buying their, their,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:their,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:think about it the same way as you'd think about owning a public share of stock private equity groups parsing out their positions in these companies and selling it to accredited investors privately.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:they would
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:they would prefer the liquid cash. Now.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Well, they need to, yeah, for
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Need to,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:operating agreement reason or just practical, I need to get money back to my investors to get more capacity.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:so you're saying that can happen at like the individual, like, man, like managing director level or, and or like a, a.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:I'm just like, like, let's use, you know, I don't know KKR, that they're probably not necessarily doing this, but like, maybe they have, uh. 500 million of in a series of companies, and they wanna half of that share, can parse that up and sell it privately as opposed to listing on an exchange or something like that, you know,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Hmm. Okay.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:positions and then they can get, you know, liquid.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Are, are there PE companies that.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:are
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:built and meant for down markets. So I'm thinking like there's ETFs and then there's like inverse ETFs, which like when the market goes down, they do well and they're just structured in a way to, to perform when there's a down market. Are there PE firms?
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:funds. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah. Are they like licking their chops right now?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:literally probably a fund out there called Contrarian Capital Management. I guarantee I'm almost certain of that. I'm sure
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Sure.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:I could Google it right now, but I'm not. just know
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:So like there might be those firms out there where they're like, this is, this is our, this is our prime time. And or Rory, you mentioned like
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:a different
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:if you have a different risk premium or different risk profile,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Some
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:of those might come into play here too, where they might not get as big of the bite of the apple in. A bullish economy because everyone wants like the top rated, you know, um, blue Star or whatever you wanna call it,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:it
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:PE firms. But now, okay, we're willing to take a, on a little bit more risk because we need to deploy this capital somehow. Is that a thing?
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:it? It is. I mean, if you think about, um, Rory and I had worked with, um, lone Star Funds and Lone Star Funds. Certainly at the time that we were there. Their entire investment thesis was, can we find assets? Distressed. Can we buy contrarian? Can we look at, you know, asset liquidation values? How do we look at these investments differently than as a, know, a, a, can we grow this and, you know, get a multiple on an operating
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:they were very contrarian. That was their, that was their key.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay, so if I'm like a founder thinking about this, and I was like, I, I wanna partner with PE but I'm, I'm being smart and I'm listening to this podcast. I know the market conditions and so I might
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:keep
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:that in mind when I'm vetting the PE firms. And then the other way around, are PE firms looking for certain types of companies? Are they're looking for different types of companies now or does that remain the same?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Hmm.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Um, no, I think there, I don't think it's, I think it's less type,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:it's more situational.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:that these are, that, you know, the. cyclical. So it's gonna be how does this cycle? And, you know, those kind of things. It's, it's gonna be more, it is more, how do I get to a return? That I'm comfortable with, how do I get to, is this an undervalued opportunity that someone else, you know, like Rory said, sometimes they have to raise money for capital calls or other things. There's, you know, issues around fund level debt where they're gonna have to get liquid. So sometimes funds are in a position where they're forced to sell
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:and there's a, you know, that's gonna be one of those where it may be a company that's completely, you know, kind of counter to the current economic trend. Um. Or maybe right in line with the current economic trend, but they're gonna look at it deal, deal by deal and go, Hey, is this an undervalued asset? Do we think, you know, over the next three to five years, typical hold period, we're gonna be able to get a good return on it. And if we can, you know, we're gonna take advantage of the fact that this owner, this founder, this, um, other private equity firm is
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:forced to get liquid. And we're going to, we're gonna jump in and, uh, you know, kind of profit from that opportunity. So.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:So, I mean, we've talked about this before, where a PE firm could sell to another PE firm. Could this be a catalyst for, okay, we're just gonna move our money over to this other PE firm?'cause they're willing to take this on and we're not.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah, and who knows what kind of
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:of
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:deal making there could be under the, you know, behind the scenes. There could be reciprocal agreement to, to buy an asset from that same PE firm under different terms. But, you know,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:you know,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:it's in, it's in the interest of both parties to do a deal on either side, you know,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Yeah.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:it's a small world people, you know, people figure out ways to.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:ways to
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Meet their objectives and a lot of times, you know, similar types of firms have the same objectives and they're in the same sort of macroeconomic situation.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:All right, so prediction, prediction time as we look forward here, tariffs. Do you two think that the situation with tariffs is going to get better, stay the same, or get worse?
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:It'll get better because it can't get much worse.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah, I was gonna say something very similar. Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:this has been, uh, and I've, I've said this to numerous folks. Um, you know, I, I think the current approach to tariffs is, the worst. Piece of economic malpractice since the Hoover administration they also were like, okay, we're gonna be able to do X, Y, or Z and help the, help the domestic economy by increasing tariffs, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, and therefore, you know it's gonna drive the domestic production'cause we're gonna cut off imports. And all that did was just crater the economy. And make the great it, it brought in a Roosevelt administration a new deal, and it really just was nasty.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:is, this is, I hear the exact same rationale for these set of tariffs. And right now, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get the exact same result.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah, without being the history buff, that is, I would say the consumer. US will feel the pain on this for a while. Yeah, we'll be frustrated by prices and things like that for some time.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:The, the only, the only good thing is from, from my seat, um, the president doesn't really have, he, he's not a, like a, died in the wool. He, he's a pragmatist. He's, so if things start going south fast, he'll blame somebody else for it
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:That's right. Yeah. Yeah,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:you know, I'm, I'm kind of counting on that
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:In terms of recession likelihood, what percentage would you say
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:we're
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:gonna be going into? Like, like a hundred percent we're going into recession or like, uh, I give it 25% in the next, next 12 to 18 months we'll be in a recession.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:A hundred
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:It is a hundred percent.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Matter of fact, we just had a, we had one quarter of negative economic growth last quarter. if you get two quarters of negative economic growth, that's technically a recession to this economist. And so you're gonna end up, I think we've got a hundred percent chance that in the next 18 months we're gonna have a declared recession, two
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Two consecutive quarters,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:of
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:That's right.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:growth.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yep.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Rory?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:no, I I'm not in any disagreement with Ed on that one. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:A hundred percent.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Wow. Is there
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:there's,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:any.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:of the depth of recessions and such like that. So there that I think remains to be seen. And what we have seen in the past is,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:is
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:I guess, you know, uh, there will be intervention if and when that happens in one way, shape, or form, monetary, most likely. Um, so yeah, I think it's, it's, it's, I would say almost inevitable. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Do you think that last question here. Do you think that America and or other world leaders will be able to get us out of the recession
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:quickly?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:probably.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Probably.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah. Relatively quickly. Yeah. Yeah.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Ed's face is, I don't like Ed's face
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:I, I, I'm, you know, the, the lawyer in me is going, so how do you define quickly? Right?
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Right.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Fair.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:it'll, I don't think we'll sink into a depression by any stretch.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:to say, I, what I don't expect is that we're gonna be in a, in a depression where there's no recovery for years. Like there was, after the Great Depression, which really took us World War ii, was, was the catalyst that got us outta the Great Depression was a 10 year, 10 year recession essentially. you know, I, I don't expect something like that to occur because again, I think that the good news in this particular situation is. The American voter votes the economy. And so if the economy sucks, the American voter's going to change the administrations in the, you know, in the next, in the next, uh, cycle. And then, you know, the, the piece of good news is we've got a lot of levers to pull on economic growth. And so as a result, you know, I, I think it's a, you know, nothing major, but I think you could see a recession for three to four quarters.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah, I agree with that.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:don't think
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:I don't think it's gonna be a 2008 type
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:No,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:crater.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:no.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Okay. Okay. Any other good news tidbits to leave us on? What's something good happening in the economy
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:In the economy?
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:or in the world? I'll broaden it. Just, just anything good.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Hmm.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:don't wanna leave it on like the downbeat of,
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:we're a
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:a hundred percent gonna be in recess.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah. Well, why do I have to think so hard about, I mean, like why is it so hard for me to come up with something?
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:Long pause here.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:no kidding. I mean, that's
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:the, the, the honest to god truth of it is there isn't a lot I can point to and go, this is just great news. Uh, you know, the, there's, this is a great opportunity that's coming down the pike. I, right now, the biggest thing from, from my seat is like, I kind of said at the, at the beginning. in a position right now, like professionally, where folks who are, you know, in, in consulting, in financial services, in, you know, that where we can help people who are concerned with uncertainty,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:of get them calmed down and get'em strategized for a way through that uncertainty. For folks like, for folks like me professionally. That's great.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Yeah.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:no argument there. I, that's actually, uh, I'm looking kind of positive. Anything that's a little bit shaky provides the, you know, consultant in me a, a good meal ticket. But it's not great. There's not much great for the entire universe.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:True. Yeah. Well said.
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:All right, so it's good for Ed. Um, so take that to heart.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Well, we got our, we got, you know, we got our health and we
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:And Rory. Yeah,
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:know,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:so feel good about that. We do have some levers to pull. It sound like if we go into recession, we have some levers to pull and it might be time to like be a contrarian and look for those opportunities. There's always like a
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:upside
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:or silver lining if you, if you look for it and get creative.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Alright, private
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:equity experience. We're back baby.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:We are back. It's good to be back. Great to be back. Good to see you both.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:Thanks,
emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717:ed. Thanks Rory.
squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715:guys.
squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715:Bye.