Private Equity Experience

Inside Saudi Arabia’s PIF: Liquidity Pressure, LIV Golf, and the Future of Private Equity Investments

• Emily Sander • Season 1 • Episode 34

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Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) once positioned itself as an unstoppable financial powerhouse, backing massive projects like LIV Golf, NEOM, and global sports investments. In this episode, the hosts break down why the $900 billion sovereign wealth fund is now facing liquidity pressure and what it reveals about risk, cash flow, and long-term investment strategy in Private Equity.

The conversation explores how ambitious “empire-building” investments can clash with the fundamentals of disciplined capital allocation, especially when projects prioritize branding and global influence over financial returns. The team also examines whether investments like LIV Golf were strategic moves or costly ego-driven bets with no clear monetization plan.

Listeners will gain insight into how Private Equity firms manage illiquid assets, the importance of diversification, and the tough decisions investors face when deals underperform. From sovereign wealth funds to traditional PE strategies, this episode offers a practical and engaging look at what happens when even the biggest investors need to slow down and rethink the playbook.

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Three insiders. One mic. All things private equity — explained. Hi 👋 We’re Ed, Rory, and Emily — a CEO, a CFO, and a Chief of Staff — here to demystify the world of private equity. Between us, we’ve sat in the founder’s chair, run PE‑backed companies, and worked on the deal side, so we know the wins, the pitfalls, and the jargon (and we’ll explain it).

Through the Private Equity Experience Podcast, our book On‑Ramp to Exit, and a library of free tools and templates, we share real‑world stories, practical strategies, and insider insights to help you navigate every stage of the PE journey — whether you’re leading a portfolio company, joining a deal team, considering PE, or just PE‑curious.

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Podcast Cold Open

Welcome to the Private Equity Experience Podcast. Your backstage pass to the strategies, stories, and secrets that drive value in the PE universe. No filters, no fluff, just straight talk and expert insights to help you navigate the private equity world with confidence. And now your hosts, ed Barton, Rory Leaphart, and Emily Sander.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Never put me anywhere dangerous.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah, well, I would trust you actually. If you were to lead a platoon or whatever you led into a dangerous area, I would follow you.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

question. Yeah. I'm on board.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

You're cool with like people just curling up in the fetal position and rocking back and forth. Right. Incoming fair.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Just keep it quiet so that the enemy doesn't hear

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Don't whimper too loudly. Got it. Roger that.

Saudi PIF Cash Crunch

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Okay. Speaking of the Middle East.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

There we are

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

When, uh, you know, you think about places where like, you know, we live in Seattle, it gets cloudy, it gets rainy, it's dark, and you're like, I just want some sun. The first place you think of is Saudi Arabia, and that's what our article is on today.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

yes. That's the first place

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Saudi Arabia's, a

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

not

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

not Arizona, not Florida,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah, yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Saudi Arabia.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah. The UAE baby. Let's go.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

totally.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Saudi Arabia is not part of the UAE

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

No, it's not UAE just pulled out of OPEC though, and that's gonna change all the dynamics with oil and stuff. But anyway, I have never been to Saudi Arabia, to be fair. I'm sure it's fantastic. But,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

anyway, Rory as always, just Kohls these articles on all these sites and finds these cool, cool articles to talk about. So this one tee us up here, big rigs. This one is how Saudi Arabia is actually like kind of pulling back and downsizing, which is.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

they're, they're public investment funds, so for whatever reason, uh, my algorithm on my news feeds, tees me up with private equity related stuff. And golf stuff.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

I wonder why. I wonder why.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

was really about how the public investment fund of Saudi Arabia, which is a sovereign wealth fund, is big backer of, um, it's a $900 billion fund, so not insignificant. There's some, you know, there's some assets sitting around there. Um, biggest backer of live golf LIV, which was basically a startup four years ago. And was put together to compete with the PGA tour, and, and in a lot of ways they've been really successful in disrupting the PGA tour, which has ultimately made the PGA tour restructure itself and become stronger and therefore tamping down live golf. So there have been some merger talks and things like that, but I ultimately predicted that lived golf is going to die on the vine. You heard it here. That's what I think is gonna happen. Now, the point of that is to say. Liv Golf was the biggest sponsor of this, and they took a big flyer on it, or I'm sorry, Saudi Piff was a, a big sponsor of, um, of Liv. And now, um, evidently, um, this hundred billion dollar fund is finding itself cash strapped. And reasons for that is taking, um, you know, long duration investment bets and, you know, some of those performing, some of those not performing, but they're finding themselves, um, cash strapped in a way

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Wait, $900 billion and they're cash strapped.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah, so they've deployed a ton of money.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Holy

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

assets on their balance sheet that, you know, if you total it up and you know it's $900 billion, but not all of that's generating cash flow. A lot of it's losing money

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Oh.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

you know, so live golf and sports, that's one of the big areas of investment. as part of like Vision 2030, which the whole mandate for this, um, this PIF is to basically create a, you know, um, a, a very legitimate, um, uh, empire, if you will with Saudi Arabia. So, make long and story short to make it diversified away from just pure oil. for lack of a better way of put it. And natural resource, let's say. Um, so they've, they've made investments in all sorts of things. Infrastructure, huge infrastructure investments in Saudi Arabia and around the Gulf. you know, as you know, they, they own, um, a lot of professional sports teams, both football. well, non-American football, so soccer as I call it, and other, other investments and things like that in all across the world. One of the biggest investments they made is this desert city in Saudi Arabia itself called Neo, NEOM. And that's just a ton of money to like literally, know, move and create. know, an entire city and move massive earth by, you know, just like creating 75 mile trenches to create, you know, space for this stuff. So like massive, highly ambitious projects requires a ton of capital, requires a ton of time to develop. you know, like a lot of private equity funds, uh, have to contend with is you make these bets, but at some point you need to be able to. See return on those investments and more importantly, see cashflow generated from those investments. So you keep doing what you're doing. Otherwise you find yourself in a place where you have to, uh, either pull back on your investment, which goes against the whole vision 2030 It's, you have to take other actions such as disposing of assets or what have you. Point is, um, you know, if you go back and read all of the press around the piff, you know, call it three, four years ago, go-go times, you know. It was all like, we will never run outta capital. We always have. We, we will, we, we have all of the resources that you could ever conceive of. Um, and here we are reading about the fact that they're struggling, uh, with liquidity. So, yeah. Very interesting.

Empire Building vs Returns

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

is now, is that just because all PE firms are struggling this way with the timing of the market and this is just a grand scale of it, or have they mis misused?

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

I would say, um, that the biggest, the biggest issue that PIF has fallen into is kind of what, what Rory said. It's it's empire building as opposed to, as opposed to of a long haul, strong investment strategy that's really looking at how do I balance, you know, risk, return, and liquidity. and, you know, they, they really have not, they. got to the point, I think, where they thought, Hey, we've got all this petro money coming in. We've, we're always gonna have cash. This is gonna continue to grow. So we could go into build

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

this, this,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Yeah. We could go build, we could go build a city.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

two weeks from now.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Yeah. You, you gotta, you got, you know, they're basically trying to terraform parts of the parts of the desert and I'm like, you know, that there's, there's probably smarter investments that have quicker paybacks.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Mm-hmm.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

And, and you know, the areas around Saudi Arabia, you know, it's, it's a, I'm sure it's a really pleasant spot to be, it's hotter than Hades. And, you know, they may have done well to go put something in, know, a housing development in the, you know. Somewhere on the Mediterranean

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

build a city there, or buy an island from Greece or something. And you know, so I mean, again, I, I think a lot of it is they, they lost track of the fundamental of analysis of risk. What's the risk premium, what's the liquidity, what's the. Kinda what's the long-term investment? What's the short-term investment and, and how do we balance all those things? They instead got ambitious and empire built, and Empire building isn't

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

is in charge of the piff? Like who makes the decisions, investment decisions.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

well, ultimately it's tied to, it's a public fund, so the. So the royal family is ultimately, um, in charge of it. Now that I know for a fact that the PIP has, um, you know, allegiances and partnerships with other public or private sector and, and other, you know, non-governmental, um, groups for sure. But, but at the end of the day, it's, that's the, the, the Saudi Royal family, and that's why it's called a Sovereign Wealth fund. Um, I agree with Ed. I, I actually chalk this up to either. Bad strategy or bad investment underwriting, um, in where they're at today. I, it's easy for me to play armchair quarterback here now, of course, but I think that that investment in capital deployment in PIF alone, or excuse me, live golf alone, which is in the billions now, it was just terrible investment. It just was like, I mean, as they were paying players, you know, a hundred million dollar guaranteed contracts just to get, just to land grab from the PGA tour. It was just like, it was meritless. It was like there was no exit strategy to it, you know, there was no monetization strategy. You're basically spending all your money up front with no, you know, no guaranteed revenue, really. Um, so you are locked into these long-term contracts with athletes and players, but you have no plan of how you're gonna generate revenue. Or maybe you'd had some like, you know, basic model, but like untested, no other, no other. Upstart has been able to take down the PGA tour and no make mistake. PGA tour was ripe for the taking, but Liv Golf didn't do it well enough. So now PGA tour is stronger and is muscling Liv golfers stamping it down where all the players that are now their four year a hundred million dollar contracts are saying, yeah, I'd have, Liv actually does suck, and I'd rather play in a competitive tour. So I'm now gonna go back to the PGA tour. So it's crazy. I, you know, I couldn't even speak to. You know what it's like to, you know, re restructure the earth, to create a massive city in what goes into that. I think that's its own level of ambition, which almost look at it like a startup. There's no real proven, proven roadmap to like copy or whatever. You just kind of gotta figure out as you go.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Well, that's, that's the thing. This is what it strikes me as is it's a, you know, I, I'll use a different word than Nora used, it's hubris. These are ego-driven, ego-driven decisions as opposed to financially driven ones. And again, know, if you're the Saudi royal family, you can, and you're MBS, you can do whatever the heck you want.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

but at some point. That's not a, a financial decision, that's an ego-driven decision. And you know, if you look at, for instance, the, the professional sports franchises, you always will have this, uh, and I'll use kind of my, my favorite sport, which is American football. You've got the NFL. NFL has 32 teams. And those teams have been generally very good investments for those who have invested in 'em because there's only 32 of them. But the cashflow, ROI hasn't been great. The capital gains are good,

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Okay.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

hasn't been great. Now, you know, for a Jerry Jones where he bought it for, you know,

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

million 30 years ago, his cashflow is fine. He could flip that thing for $8 billion or $10 billion, and he's done really well.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

but it's mostly to say I own the.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Yeah. But when you try to compete with that, so you have the XFL, the USFL, the, the Canadian Football League, the, you know, you and, and I use, you know, if you look at like the USFL, which you know, both of you are way too young to remember, but I remember New

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

No, I'm not that much. No,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

New Jersey Generals and Donald Trump.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

definitely, definitely alive when that was, that was

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

no idea what you're talking about.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

they, they basically, there was a, we're gonna do spring football and we're gonna compete head to head with the NFL and we're gonna go take NFL players. It was kinda like, Liv Golf, we're gonna go out and we're gonna overpay the players. We're gonna go, we're gonna have a competitive draft, and we're gonna take those players. So like Herschel Walker went to the generals and

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

went to the Houston? No, it was Jim Kelly went to the Houston gamblers. And so you had all these like famous players ended up at in the USFL, but the USFL folded because there's. The, the egos were there, but the business model wasn't, and the live golf is much the same. so folks will overpay to get the star power to be surrounded by the ego to, to satisfy their ego. But it's not a financial decision. It's a poor financial decision. I,

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

So I can do this just because I can is not a sound investment strategy.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

generally, it generally has

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Okay.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

to be pretty poor.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Good to know. Good to know. Okay.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

that's an important takeaway for this episode. I feel like.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

good to a point. You know, I

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

What?

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

there's, there's, there's, there's levels to it. Now it's, now you ask yourself, well, what do they

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

so, you know, I mean. The, they going

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Okay.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

sell assets? Are they going to double down and like, you know, basically change their strategy into, okay, I'm gonna invest in some more income generating private equity strategies, for example. Something like that. Who knows? And, and I guess this is partially a recap pod in a way, because we, we did the podcast on the EA sports acquisition was like the largest PE acquisition recent memory, if I recall. And, and, um. Piff, the Saudi Piff partnered with some other private equity firms, and they invested $30 billion in that, in that deal. So, and that was really a, another sports play is really what it was. Electronic, eSports basically play for them. So they're, they're really trying to, what it is, is they're, they're trying to invest in things that make them culturally, um, you know. How do I put it? Like acceptable, I guess, in a lot of ways. I mean, you know, that's, that a lot of, a lot of the terms used is, you know, kind of, um, sports washing is one of the terms that they used for the live golf investment. Basically, you know, trying to, trying to invest in things that make some of their, uh, cultural practices and policies and things like that. Um, you know, you know, a little bit, uh. Less negatively viewed. So it's like they're investing in their own image as much as anything, if you will. So that's, that's my take on it. how do you quantify that? Like, you how does that, how do you, how do you monetize that? So, um, so yeah, there's, there's. There's, you know, this, this could be like a too big to fail kind of thing, obviously, but like, I don't know who would bail that out, but I don't think we're talking about that being an issue. I think we're just saying, hey, they've invested in long-dated assets that are illiquid, you know, they're gonna have to pull back on their investments probably. And they've been speaking about it that way, especially with Lgo and others. But hopefully they decided to basically cut bait with some money losers and, you know, go, you know, focus on the things that have. You know, a higher chance of success, you know, and aren't so just like brand related investments, if you will.

Exit Options Playbook

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

What are the typical go-to strategies for PE firms in, in situations like this? You kind of mentioned some of 'em, but just to kind of lay the table, what, what are, what are like the top three go-to? Like, here's the most common things people do in this situation.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Well,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

kinda like, it's kinda like when you got a, when you got a race horse, you either can stud it, you can shoot it, or you could just run it until it doesn't run anymore.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

And then you end up shooting it. Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

dies, it breaks its own legs. But I

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

really the, they've got, they've got three choices. They either could go, okay, we're gonna hold we're gonna, we're, we're gonna kind of stop, you know, we'll continue to kinda keep the thing alive, but we're gonna, you know, it's not gonna cornerstone our investment strategy. Or you can shoot it. And go, look, we're, and, and you know, that looks like what they're talking about doing with Liv. And they're basically gonna go, look, we're, it's losing a couple hundred million dollars a year, we're just gonna stop just gonna die. It's gonna just fade out. Or they can stud it, they could sell it off somewhere else and go, look, we will take a loss on it, but we get some liquidity now. Yeah. And we can use, use that liquidity to reinvest in something that's gonna give us a better return. So, we're stuck in this thing and we're, we've about had enough of it, so we're just going to, you know, kind of farm this off to somebody else. We're gonna use that as seed money to go buy something else

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

where we could probably get a better return. And so it's, you know, one of those three, three things. Shoot it, study it, or run it. And I just. I think in Liv's case it's, it looks like, you know, everything that Rory sent over and then the research I was doing to kind of get myself ready for today, it looks like they're just gonna go look, it's, it's just gonna kind of fade away

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

is a lot of billions of dollars that are just gonna

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Just totally wasted. And the, the people that won in this are the players that

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Oh, yeah.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

four years, said, okay, I'm gonna take my Kush four year contract. I'm gonna play it out now, I'm gonna go back and really compete. And most of these guys are probably turning 50 soon. So they'll play on the Champions tour where you're, you know, exempt for life. They're, you know, those, those people that they took some reputational risk to move over to live for sure. People hated that. You know, they thought, oh, you're selling out to the Saudis and all this stuff. But they did it. And, uh, you know, generational wealth is created and basically it's a sa live golf is like, basically an exhibition. It's not even like truly like real competition in, in thus standards anyway. But, uh, you know, one of the things that I would say about the PF right? Like, it's not gonna like, you know, decimated or anything that's, you have, you have, that's one thing with like a single LP slash GP is like. It's a patient investor. So this is, this is the, this is the sovereign wealth fund. This is the royal family. So they're not gonna demand redemptions and things like that. You know, that is something that private equity funds have to contend with, is their LPs are

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

PIFs of the world, right? So, you know, if, if you're not able to monetize your assets, you've invested in. Then you run the risk of, you know, kind of either losing lp, um, confidence so you can't raise money from 'em again. Or they're just like, give me my liquidity, and you have to figure out a way to, you know, be able to redeem the investments. Same, something like that. So, um, other ways that private equity funds would combat this as sell secondaries. So basically se sell. You know, secondary shares in either the operating company they've invested in or in the fund themselves. So like that's one thing that PIF could do if it theoretically needed to raise more capital just to continue, is like, other investors bring in other LPs to the Sovereign Wealth fund. Then it, I don't know if it would be still called a sovereign wealth loan at that point, but that's what they could do is allow outside investors to come in. So, know, why wouldn't the US wanna invest in Saudi Arabia? I don't know, you know.

Capital Calls and PIF Flexibility

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

In like a, a normal PE firm, could they do a capital called to their LPs?

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Uh, they can't call for more capital than it's otherwise

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

It's committed,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

be a new raise.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Okay. But

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

So

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

they like kept some dry powder, they could bring that in.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

yeah, if they hadn't called all their commitments, um, then yes, they would go back and call any remaining commitments.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

again, I, you still have to go to the decision of, you know, are you sending good money after bad or

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah, but

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah,

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

the unique setup with the Sovereign Wealth Fund is they are the PE firm and LP in one. And so technically they could be like, yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna just put more cash into this. I'm gonna

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

another round.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

yeah. Totally. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Hmm.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

That's why I say, I mean, you know, it's not like Saudi Arabia is gonna become poor overnight, you know, by any stretch. I mean, they do have some of the most valuable, especially today, natural resources on earth.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

well, you gotta be able to get it out of there so

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

do

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

that

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

I just gonna ask like

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

it.

Oil Routes and Diversification Pressure

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yep.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

how much did the ran straight of Horus thing affect any, or it was like, no, it's, I mean, this is.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

the irony is it's actually really good for us and Canada and North America and other places that export from this side of the world. Venezuela probably, although that oil is different than this, but like yeah, it's the, it's the gulf oil states that are struggling 'cause they can't get it out of there. And so, yeah, the US and exports are actually doing pretty

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

I was gonna say there was a big.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

an oil person in the US right now, you're, you're stoked.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Yeah, there was a big thing where like Donald Trump was talking about the, the boats were all that were headed. The straight of Horus have all kind of turned and headed toward the US to get our oil. And he's like, that's great for us.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

It's a master stroke. I mean,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

you're like, yeah, except, you know, it's still, supply and demand doesn't get suspended because it's headed this way, you

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

I

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

it's

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

I know.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

you know, it's, it's.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

regardless, I mean the, the issue also for Saudi Arabia is they do live in a section of the world that, you know, for the last 4,000 years has been kind of a little bit of a hotspot. And, um, the, they have a real heavy duty focus on, on petrochemicals. And so, you know, there is a point at which it's gonna become less and less economical to, to basically continue to pump the oil. the entire purpose of this, just like Norway has a big sovereign wealth fund as well, to go, how can we take care of our people for the long haul and diversify our income streams away from this so that as it starts drawing down Yeah. Alaska's got,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Native regional

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

this really sets them back

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

Overpaying Deals and Liquidity Reality

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

and I, I just went back and I looked at my prediction on the EA sports deal and I said I was, I was cautiously skeptical. On the, on the EA sports deal because I said, look, I think they've overpaid. I think it's splashy and sexy. I think it's, you know, I don't think it's gonna be, uh, the demographics say that we're gonna see declining, uh, players or de declining folks in the, in that space. And I think it was an ego driven deal. And I still stand by that comment a year later.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah. Agreed.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

you know, kind of coming back to what you said, Rory, this is kind of a recap. I think this is just. The earliest and biggest chicken of live golf coming home to, coming home to roost. So we're, we're using all sorts of like farm analogies today. So we got horses and chickens.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

are national resources

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Yeah. So, and I'm, and I'm game with that. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

No, no. No, no. Never count our chickens before they hatch. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

another country?

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

up shit creek without a paddle if they're not careful even, you know? So but would say that the ea sports deal is an interesting one. And, and make no mistake what we're talking about here with the hubris of like. Overpaying and sort of like betting on the, on the come, that's not anything unique to pif. Like if you prob if you look at some of the investments made in sort of the, you know, like immediately post COVID and interest rates were extremely low still. There were some over overpayments, over overpaid assets, overbought assets that are now coming to roost and you hear about it all the time. Um, with. Secondaries being sold and other things like that to extend the life of these funds and stuff like, so it's not just a PIP thing, this thing just happens to be one of the biggest ones in the

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

I was gonna say it's, it's big and it doesn't have to answer to a bunch of institutional LPs. It's answering to. which might be worse. I mean, he's known to kind of be a little bit harsh with folks that he doesn't get along with or that

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

yeah,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

cut him the wrong way, pun intended. So I would say, you know, from from my seat, I think there's a, you know, I think there's less pressure on PIF because it, it does not have the LP. They don't, they're not in constant, I gotta get a good return to raise capital, which you see with, you know, typical private equity funds. They don't, well, they've got a liquidity challenge right now. They, you know, their, their need for liquidity could be mitigated.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

the Saudi governments need for liquidity could be mitigated elsewhere, and they just slow some of the other development, like, like they're, you know, the, the Goby desert type of thing, or it's not the Goby desert, the, the. Arabian Desert, the terraforming. That is It just, you gotta go. Okay. We gotta slow that down 'cause we don't have enough cash to pour into it. 'cause the other stuff sucked it up.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah, and it's just so you, you slow it down and you, or stop for a bit and that, that the money doesn't really get spent as much as that. 'cause it's mostly, machinery, labor, all that stuff. So, um, yeah, I mean there's, I guess it's just the more, the tenor of the discussion is less about, hey, we're unstoppable to, Hey, we, we need to slow down a little bit. So yeah, that's, that's a very big. different signal, you know, for the Wall Street Journal to pick that up and publish that. That's a, that's a big deal.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't call out an abbreviation. You used kind of at the top of your comments, Rory, so the, I think it stands for cumulative, but can you just break down that acronym?

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Which one?

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Betting on the

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Oh, come like, I, it's just, it's not actually an acronym. It's just like all of the, all of the benefits on its way to you in the future. So it's, it's coming to you, but later basically

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Oh, okay.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

a, it's just an euphemism.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Okay.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

You're betting on the future is another way to

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

I thought I've seen this.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

it's a gambling, it's a gambling expression, so

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

I've also seen,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

for, for craps.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

oh, I, I swear to God, I've also seen like Karina use this in presentation where she's like, it's, it's the abbreviation of cumulative. And she calls it like,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Oh,

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

and I was like,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

would call a cum at

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

yeah. I was like,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

be careful with that one. But,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Yeah. No, no, no. This is, this is basically, it's a, it's a craps expression

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Oh, gotcha. Okay.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

okay, I'm, I'm kind of waiting for a certain,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

as a crap shoot.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

yeah.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

part. That's where you hear that coming from is like, you're shooting

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Hume is something else.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

happen. I dunno. Who knows? You know?

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Okay, gotcha. Could anyone bail them out? Like who's bigger? Like, I mean, I'm trying to think. It's like Jurassic Park.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

No, no,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

maybe if many countries pooled their sovereign wealth funds together, they might be able to scrape it together, you know? I don't know. And um. I dunno. Maybe Chase Bank, who knows, you know?

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Do you think that,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

there's a there. I don't think there's gonna be a need for a bail out there either.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

no,

Advising MBS on Smarter Investing

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

do you think Saudi Arabia will like try again? Like, Hey, lessons learned, we're gonna do this, you know, P two or whatever, and like, here's our new strategy.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah, because this, I don't think their strategy changes. They want to divers away their diversify away from petro as much as they can, but I think maybe they rethink their vision 2030 and create like a vision 2040. That's slightly different probably. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

they involve like some financial investors who kind of know what a good deal looks like or a good investment? Or is that too, too, uh.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

I would say they've got, they probably have those,

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Oh, absolutely. I

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

they, I

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

got access to, they've got access

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

I am sure they do, but clearly it didn't work. So

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

Uh,

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

you, if you were advising MBS, let's say you were his chief of staff for Con Sigle and he actually listened to you, what would you advise him?

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

to me. Um, well, because I'm, I'm a gentle, gentle, and

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

I don't think that's what he responds to, but Okay. Keep going.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

mentor. Um, no. What I, what I would say is, look, there's, there's a proven methodology. Here. And so take 10 or 15% and put that on like whatever you, whatever you want, like the exciting, fun stuff that you, you know, you want to go out and invest in, you know, rocket cars or you want to go invest in, you know, boat racing, or you want to go invest, invest in, you know, zebra farms or something. That's fine. do that with about 10% of this and whatever you want, man. Just, you go crazy. You wanna do paisley ties, that's fine. But the other 90, 85, 90%, there's a proven methodology, which is, you know, we, we look for undervalued assets. have a lot of money to put to work, so it's likely to be undervalued. Public companies where you can put, you know, billions of dollars to work. utilize a fair bit of leverage, and we may provide the leverage from the fund. So you kind of have a debt side and equity side within the pif.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Mm-hmm.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

And you lever your investments and then you flip 'em out and you go, okay, now what do we have for a long-term strategy for Saudi Arabia? That's gonna work. It's gonna be, you know, again, maybe not terraforming out in the Arabian Desert, but it could be, you've got a number of cities like Riyadh, which have, which have really grown up over the last 40 years and turn into amazing places. And so how do we continue to allow that growth? What do we do to, to kind of utilize. The, and the, and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia does a good job of this. I, I saw it at St. Martin's when I was there of sending, um, students overseas for education. So, you know, engineers and, and scientists. And so how do we start building our intellectual capital, um, so that we can diversify away? And then finally. Do like the Japanese did back in the, in the seventies, eighties, and nineties, and the Chinese are doing today, and how do we invest in other countries such that we start to control their industries? So we don't need it sitting here in the Arabian Desert, but what we want is to diversify our cash flows away from what's sitting here in the Arabian Desert. So how do we do that in such a way that we continue to have, you know, the kind of lifestyle that we, that we in the kingdom expect I think you can do that without getting too crazy. But if you wanna be a little bit nuts, take 15% of it and go do whatever the hell you want with it.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

would you tell him to. Have a different mix of investment types. 'cause you mentioned equity or debt vehicle, like loans.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

absolutely. Yes.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

get some dividend plays, get some passive stuff, real estate or whatever. Would you say like mix it up more? I don't, I don't know what the mix was of this current pif, but would you say, hey, more of the tried and true kind of, this is

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

big, your

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

guaranteed.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

you know, like when I think back Rory to when we were working with Lone Star, had real estate investments. They had straight equity, they had debt, they had distressed debt. They had, I mean they had a fairly diverse set of, and they had international, so they own Korean Exchange Bank. They own

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah. Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

think in Germany. So I mean, they, they had a, a well diversified global portfolio. And there's no reason the Saudis couldn't do the same thing. And it should be, you know, why don't they, why? You know, you want an ego play, buy the Empire State Building.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah, yeah. the White House, you know? Um, but yeah, totally agree with all those things. So just diversity, I, I'd probably be less on startup projects than, than more private equity type projects. And, you know, public, I would certainly advocate for public equities and, you know, um, fixed income as, I mean, this is boring stuff, you know, but when you have tons and tons and tons of capital and you're trying to build a future for your. know, country, then yeah, unsexy is okay. You know, stable is good. But I do also recognize it's not just a financial play. It's, it is like a truly a,

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Brand.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

a, a brand play

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

It's almost rebranding. Yeah.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

image, you know, out

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

You know, so they wanna be a major player at the table in all aspects of, you know, existence. And so this is how they're going about it, you know?

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Well I think, you know, MBS if you're listening, um,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

I am sure.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

so let us know. Help.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

would, I would, I would expect given, given the, how the Saudis operate, that will listen as soon as this gets picked up somewhere

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Oh

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

that, oh, they talked about us, bang. And they'll have some junior analyst at the Piff listening to this, and then

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Cool.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

they'll come talk to me about my race horse strategy.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Uh, Sound.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

Excellent. All right. We'll leave her there. But yeah, we're racking up the predictions, so I think we should do an episode soon on just like how. Did our predictions go over the course of several episodes? We've predicted a whole bunch of things.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Yeah.

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

No.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

importantly,

whizzle-shazizzle--it-is-_1_04-29-2026_150530

I think we made some predictions around, uh, after

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

football.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

yeah.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

yeah, we should. Okay. We might do like a round robin or grab bag of how, how accurate were we on the P team? Cool. All right.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

I like it.

emily-sander_1_04-29-2026_150532

I like it. All right. Thanks, ed. Thanks, Rory. Okay.

rory-liebhart_1_04-29-2026_150532

Thanks, Sam.

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